Luis M. Viceira is the George E. Bates Professor in the Finance Unit and Senior Associate Dean for Executive Education at Harvard Business School, and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. His research, course development, and teaching focus on the areas of investment management and capital markets. A member of the faculty of the Harvard Business School since 1998, Professor Viceira has taught an array of Finance courses in the MBA program, Executive Education programs, and the Business Economics Ph.D. program, and has served in several leadership positions. He is currently the instructor for the Investment Management for Professional and Personal Investors course in the Elective Curriculum of the MBA Program, co-chair of the HBS-CFA Institute Investment Management Program for leaders of asset management firms, and co-chair of the Asset Management Conference for HBS Alums. He also serves as co-chair of the NBER-NBIM Conference on New Developments in Long-Term Asset Management.

Prof. Viceira has developed extensive research and case writing in long-term asset allocation, asset pricing, fixed income markets, household finance, international finance, the management and organization of large institutional investors, and innovation and disruption in the money management industry. He is currently studying the implications of financial globalization for long-term asset management; the impact of monetary policy on bond and equity market risks; the disruptive power of fintech in the asset management industry; the growth in index investing and in activist investing, and the impact of such growth and the interaction between the two on capital markets and corporations.

Professor Viceira is the author of multiple journal articles published in leading academic and practitioner-oriented finance journals, book chapters, Harvard Business School case studies, and the book Strategic Asset Allocation (with John Y. Campbell). His research has received several awards recognizing its contributions to the theory and practice of asset management, including the 2002 TIAA-CREF Paul Samuelson Award, the 2005 Graham and Dodd Award by the CFA Institute, the 2004 Prize for Financial Innovation of the Q-Group, Inquire Europe, and Inquire U.K., and more recently the 2014 Arthur Warga Award by the The Society for Financial Studies.

Professor Viceira holds a bachelor degree from the Universidad Autonoma in Madrid, and a M.A. degree and a Ph.D. degree in Economics from Harvard University. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts and a fellow of the TIAA-CREF Institute in New York.

Professor Viceira is currently a member of the Asset Allocation Advisory Board at NBIM, the manager of the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Norway, a Governor (Public) of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the Harvard University Trustee of the Charles E. Cotting Trust, a Trustee at Milton Academy. He is also a past trustee of the Financial Accounting Foundation and Belmont Day School, among others. He also serves as director, external consultant, and advisor to asset management firms, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, central banks, international organizations, insurance companies, and not-for-profit organizations.

Awards

  1. Winner of the 1999 FAME Research Prize from the International Center for Asset Management and Financial Engineering and University of Lausanne for “Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds? (with John Y. Campbell, American Economic Review, March 2001).

  2. Winner of the 2002 TIAA-CREF Paul A. Samuelson Award for Outstanding Scholarly Writing on Lifelong Financial Security for Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors (with John Y. Campbell, Oxford University Press, 2002).

  3. Winner of the 2004 Investment Potential Prize from the Three-Way Symposium of Inquire Europe, Inquire UK, and the Q-Group for “The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff” (with John Y. Campbell, Financial Analysts Journal, January/February 2005).

  4. Winner of the 2005 Graham and Dodd Award for Excellence in Financial Writing from the Financial Analysts Journal and the CFA Institute for “The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff” (with John Y. Campbell, January/February 2005).

  5. First Arthur Warga Award for the Best Paper in Fixed Income from The Society for Financial Studies, 2014 Finance Cavalcade, for “Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks” (with John Y. Campbell and Carolin E. Pflueger).

Publications

Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors

 

This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country correlations of cash flow shocks raises the risk of a globally diversified portfolio at all horizons. By contrast, an increase in the cross-country correlations of discount rate shocks has a muted effect on portfolio risk at long horizons and does not diminish the benefits of global portfolio diversification to long-term investors. Empirically, we find that increased correlations of discount rate shocks resulting from financial globalization appear to be the main driver of an estimated secular increase in the cross-country correlations of both stock and bond returns since the late 1990s. Increased correlations of inflation shocks are also an important source of the shift in bond correlations. By contrast, we don’t find evidence of an increase in the cross-country correlations of equity cash flow news or stock market volatility shocks. Our findings imply that the benefits of global equity diversification have not declined for long horizon investors despite the secular increase in global stock correlations, while the benefits of global bond diversification have declined.

Link to Global Portfolio Diversification for Long Horizon Investors

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence that real rate risk premia and inflation risk premia contribute to nominal bond excess return predictability to quantitatively similar degrees. The estimated liquidity premium between U.S. inflation-indexed and nominal yields is systematic, ranges from 30 bps in 2005 to over 150 bps during 2008-2009, and contributes to return predictability in inflation-indexed bonds. We find no evidence that bond supply shocks generate return predictability.

 

Link to:  Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation and Liquidity 

Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios

We develop an analytical solution to the dynamic portfolio choice problem of an investor with power utility defined over wealth at a finite horizon, who faces a time-varying investment opportunity set, parameterized using a flexible vector autoregression. We apply this framework to study the horizon effects in the allocations of equity-only investors, who hold a mix of value and growth indices, and a more general investor, who also has access to Treasury bills and bonds. We find that the mean allocation of equity-only investors is heavily tilted towards value stocks at short horizons, but the magnitude of this tilt declines dramatically with the investment horizon, implying that growth is less risky than value at long horizons. Investors with access to bills and bonds exhibit similar behavior when value and growth tilts are computed relative to the total equity allocation of the portfolio. However, after accounting for the propensity of these investors to increase their total equity allocation as the horizon increases, the mean value tilt of the optimal allocation is shown to be positive and stable across time.

Link to: Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios

Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

Our new model of consumption-based habit formation preferences generates loglinear, homoscedastic macroeconomic dynamics and time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks. Consumers’ first-order condition for the real risk-free interest rate takes the form of an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation, commonly assumed in New Keynesian models. Estimating the model separately for 1979–2001 and 2001–2011 explains why the exposure of U.S. Treasury bonds to the stock market changed from positive to negative. A change in the comovement between inflation and the output gap explains changing bond risks but only when risk premia change endogenously as predicted by the model.

Link to: Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

For more information

A complete litany of Dr. Viceira’s publications, awards, teaching and authored books is available here:

Dr. Viceira Biography